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Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 21:24:01 GMT -5
Post by Funkii on Jun 28, 2010 21:24:01 GMT -5
24 hours will be up by noon tomorrow, then you guys will have another 24 hours to make your votes final.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 0:30:26 GMT -5
Post by belthazar666 on Jun 29, 2010 0:30:26 GMT -5
ok, then why does he keep changing? and i'm 75% sure why he fos's you, alex. last night took forever, you were gone. so he thinks that cuz you were gone, your mafia. when in fact, funkii said in the irc, that he may just be waiting this long, and he may have gotten the results sooner, but was holding them. so, the idea that he was gone, and that caused the long night is invalid. Nah, I didn't even know he was gone. Also, I don't make connections between length of night and mafia, as anyone can just hold a vote to make someone else look mafia.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 0:42:23 GMT -5
Post by luminos on Jun 29, 2010 0:42:23 GMT -5
okay, so here I am to give more explanations.
Eritas misses a few subtleties of my actions. I'll see if I can catch them all. For one, I never said I knew there was a yakker, but that I suspected there was. Two, I didn't say I suspected eritas as badly as Laexio, I said I suspected him for the same reason as Laexio. Subtle difference, that is also important. Laexio used a defense that had a decent chance of avoiding lynch, but that could only make sense from my point of view if he was a mafia. Eritas uses a defense that could ostensibly work even if he was town. So he leaves open the possibility of some kind of mistake, but I'm still all for lynching him. He hasn't accounted for the possibility of me being a mistaken townie, so I take that as his being okay with it just being between him and me.
I also take it to mean that there is at least one more mafia besides him, so from a purely pragmatic point of view, it would make sense to take a chance on me still being village and lynch him today. If I'm village then that means you keep a villager who can do something useful for town if you lynch him. If you lynch me, then the best case scenario is that I'm mafia and you still have to hunt down the remaining mafia, worst case scenario I'm town and you have to hunt down two mafia. If I could do a box diagramm, I would. In game theory terms, the risk outweighs the reward for lynching me. But of course, this ignores any "scum reads" that anyone believes themselves capable of.
Eritas raises a good point. Why did I focus on him? There are two reasons, one situational and one pragmatic.
The situational one is that Belth voted for him yesterday and made it sound like he had some kind of good reason for doing so despite the fact he wouldn't share it. If I got reason to think eritas was town, I'd lead a lynch on Belth and vouch for eritas. That would be a two for one deal, where we'd get rid of an unreliable player and have another player we could trust all at once. If I got reason to think eritas was mafia, well great, thats a lynch right there.
The pragmatic reason is more metagamey. The idea behind it is that you should always try to focus on players that are the most powerful. If you get reason to believe they are town sided, then you have a strong player that you can trust to help the town, and that is a very good thing. If you get reason to believe that they are mafia, then you can focus on taking out a very skilled mafia player that, one that without such focus would have a very good chance to screw the town without anyone ever catching on.
The flipside of that is focusing on a person that is not very talented, or at the least that is not acting in a way that you think is very helpful to town. The reason to do this is if you are hoping they are mafia, and you could lead strong on them. This has the weakness that you would probably be able to lynch them even without such special focus. But it can have unexpected rewards when they turn out to be town and you prevent them from what would have been an inevitable lynch, so it is sometimes profitable to use this strategy.
Still, I prefer to focus on players I considered skilled, if I have no in game reason to focus on anyone in particular. eritas is both skilled, and I had an in game reason to focus on him.
TLDR: I have reasons for my actions, lynch one of us, and get the other tomorrow if you lynch the innocent one.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 0:49:50 GMT -5
Post by kelsielove on Jun 29, 2010 0:49:50 GMT -5
luminos thats what i needed. Thanks.
You just soft claimed for belth. So if he is also a pr then you are slightly expendable. tbh. Plus your death clears a lot of people and condemns a few. If you are cop we lynch eritas tomorrow and if you arent we kill belth and win. but thats how i feel. I am still not voting yet just in case i change my mind.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 1:35:17 GMT -5
Post by luminos on Jun 29, 2010 1:35:17 GMT -5
I'm going to try a box diagramm anyways just for those curious about it (odds haters are advised to avert their eyes) outcome table | Eritas is mafia | Luminos is mafia | Eritas is lynched | Useful town role is still alive, mafia is dead | non-useful town role is dead, mafia will die later | Luminos is lynched | useful town role is dead, mafia will die later | Non-useful town is alive, mafia is dead |
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 3:03:54 GMT -5
Post by eritas on Jun 29, 2010 3:03:54 GMT -5
luminos, thank you for the response. The thing is, I was (and still am?) willing to say maybe you are a misdirected townie. At the beginning of the day I said several times "Is this a reaction test?" I mean is it still possible that we are both town? It's not like I have a guilty report on you, you are the one trying to implicate me here. Obviously I don't want to lynch you if you are town and doom us both. Given my pov however, there is a "New Enemy" among us and you are still a candidate to be that one.
Secondly, your box diagram is nice and all, but you are taking away from the town focusing on scumhunting. Its nice to do risk/reward analysis, but the fact is if the town lynches me its bad for us, no matter what your box says. Also, I am not a "non-useful" town, I may not have a super sexy ability, but I am able to find mafia, even better than reports imo.
I mean I know I'm not mafia, so is there anyway you are mistaken about me? I am not in the position to say I am mistaken about you, until you say oh my report is not 100% on eritas. Up until that point, I really am just defending myself from someone who is scum to me.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 3:15:33 GMT -5
Post by luminos on Jun 29, 2010 3:15:33 GMT -5
Its always possible that I am mistaken, if there are roles that can mess up my method of getting my reads on people. I really hope that isn't the case, but it is possible. It isn't a possibility I know what to do with, because without knowing the roles that could mess with me, its best for me to pursue a lynch on you.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 6:11:17 GMT -5
Post by LukeRichards on Jun 29, 2010 6:11:17 GMT -5
Hi guys my internet was broken for the past 4 days.
And Wow funkii... word on the street is you're already planning your next game while simultaneously playing out this one? Kudos.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 6:14:30 GMT -5
Post by Funkii on Jun 29, 2010 6:14:30 GMT -5
That is correct sir! Already in the works of developing my second run at a forum Mafia game!
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 6:35:41 GMT -5
Post by doomedjellyfish on Jun 29, 2010 6:35:41 GMT -5
Wow..I'll need a little more time to think about this. Still not exactly clear about when 12 is there (in how many hours), but I'll vote when I come back.
EDIT: Unless anyone can tell me?
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 6:54:20 GMT -5
Post by LukeRichards on Jun 29, 2010 6:54:20 GMT -5
5 hours.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 7:10:37 GMT -5
Post by Funkii on Jun 29, 2010 7:10:37 GMT -5
Yep in 5 hours 24 hours will have gone by.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 9:04:57 GMT -5
Post by luminos on Jun 29, 2010 9:04:57 GMT -5
I came to a realization. I no longer have any reason to fear that eritas is a towny whom I am mistakenly lynching. He insists that he knows there is a yak. If he is lying, then he is mafia. If he is being honest, then it wouldn't make sense to assume there is a mafia role that could mess with me in the way I fear. I mean, if there is a yak, the most that mafia would start with would be 2 or it would be unbalanced in my opinion. With Laexio dead, I can't fathom a way for the remaining mafia to be a converter and have another power. So if there is in fact a converter mafia, then eritas is still mafia. This relieves me a great deal.
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 11:02:33 GMT -5
Post by LukeRichards on Jun 29, 2010 11:02:33 GMT -5
LukeRichards Votes Luminos
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Day 4
Jun 29, 2010 11:11:12 GMT -5
Post by THodges on Jun 29, 2010 11:11:12 GMT -5
wait a sec, i forgot... who said that their power couldn't be used till last night? *rereads* eritas did... does no one find it weird that she said her role wouldn't be in effect till last night? and once it does, there is a "new" enemy?
I CHANGE MY VOTE TO ERITAS
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