|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 3:17:30 GMT -5
Post by eritas on Jun 28, 2010 3:17:30 GMT -5
Well, I certainly considered it, but figured luminos might be the obvious choice. I had a read that kelsie was also important for the town based on some things she said earlier on, not sure if you want me to point those out specifically.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 3:30:09 GMT -5
Post by jack on Jun 28, 2010 3:30:09 GMT -5
Reasonable enough.
So right now 9 people left, seems to be one converted person as the converter remains alive. My question is 1 or 2 other maf, ie do we have a mislynch or do we need to get this right.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 3:34:01 GMT -5
Post by eritas on Jun 28, 2010 3:34:01 GMT -5
Well, seeing as luminos wasn't mafia yesterday (I wouldn't think) but is today, I would say that there is for sure 1 other mafia, but I doubt 2. I do still think however, that there is a high probability (my gut says 75% or more chance) that there is a 3rd party involved. I think the current setup is something like 6 town 2 mafia 1 third party, so that we would have 1 ML (depending on whether or not a third party affiliation could joint-win). The possibilities really are endless.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 3:39:30 GMT -5
Post by eritas on Jun 28, 2010 3:39:30 GMT -5
I am close to 100% confident that the type of actions that happened last night can only occur once in the game (edit: so as to say lynching the converter instead of the converted shouldn't be an issue today). I believe that if a 3rd party does exist, it would be just 1 person playing to win on their own if they do exist. That part is just a hunch though.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 5:07:11 GMT -5
Post by luminos on Jun 28, 2010 5:07:11 GMT -5
I'm really not pushing as hard on this lynch because I didn't think I'd have to. The previous day, I had to push as hard as I could so that the attention couldn't be diverted away from me and Laexio. Today, everyone has a pretty good idea of what it means for me to fos someone, so there is no reason for me to sweat it. If I get lynched, eritas will be gone tomorrow. If eritas gets lynched, then I should be sticking along for a bit longer. Also, I'm reasonably certain that eritas knows who the nurse is.
Oh, and by the way, if I was converted there would have been a hell of a lot better choices to fake on than eritas. Eritas was one of the people trusting saying he trusted me almost since the beginning. If I wanted to fake on someone, I'd do it on a person that was already suspicious of me.
Oh yes, and one last thing. I have been apprehensive this entire game about the possibility of the mafia's ability to manipulate the results of certain night actions. Laexio's refusal to return my fos was what relieved some of that worry about his case. Eritas's determination to return the fos is a bit more wifomy in the situation, but it is still slightly reassuring to me.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 6:56:14 GMT -5
Post by Funkii on Jun 28, 2010 6:56:14 GMT -5
Eritas I really didn't want you revealing all of that about your role, but it is a little late now and half the cast has already seen it. This is your first warning in the game, don't make me kick you out of the game.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 8:58:29 GMT -5
Post by alexjabo on Jun 28, 2010 8:58:29 GMT -5
Ok, so I think there is a stalker role maybe
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:10:06 GMT -5
Post by THodges on Jun 28, 2010 10:10:06 GMT -5
once again, i will stress my key points
1) belth giving random fos's for bs reasons then lurking 2) that i'm 95% sure that the mafia was sleeping 3) that it wouldn't make sense for the "yak" not to die inless the doc saved them ( very unlikely) 4) that if someone was yak'd, it wouldn't be luminos, because they know that is the obvious target, and they could yak someone else, and let town lynch luminos
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:11:28 GMT -5
Post by kelsielove on Jun 28, 2010 10:11:28 GMT -5
What if things are a lot worse then we suspected. What if luminos is the Yak role? He led a false lynch on laexio who turned out to be miller? (Since laexio showed as nilla). And was planning on yaking and suicide. He could safely assume doc would be on him and that we would trust his fos again.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:13:50 GMT -5
Post by kelsielove on Jun 28, 2010 10:13:50 GMT -5
So instead of being down to one maf were down to 3.... So if we mislynch today and they kill tonight we are down to a lylo for the rest of the game.....
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:21:24 GMT -5
Post by doomedjellyfish on Jun 28, 2010 10:21:24 GMT -5
If you look through his posts, Belth says little yet criticizes a lot. Jack may be on the right track when he says Belth is a third party. That hard claim with the button situation keeps bothering me. ‘New enemy’ could mean another mafia, or a malicious third party who will start their work now that they know what the will says.
I am doubting that it is mylo, yet Luminos is once again sticking out his neck for one of his foses. Last time he was right on the money. If he got converted, why would had be so adamant about a lynch now? He is not dumb by any means. We would kill him the next day if he got it wrong, or if Eritas didn’t flip miller.
On the other hand, Luminos did not come out and say his fos as he had yesterday, and he claimed to investigate someone who was clear in his mind. As a cop, I usually look into my foses rather than friends. His use of ‘nurse’ instead of doctor or bodyguard also has me wondering what other information he has.
Anyway, I hope I’m wrong in thinking that the night actions may have gotten switched up. A framing type of deal would leave no one with any credibility, and that is what mafia wants. I guess a conversion is more probable, especially since Eritas got chastised for going on about a yak.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:29:25 GMT -5
Post by kelsielove on Jun 28, 2010 10:29:25 GMT -5
Plus doc would be on Luminos.... which makes me think luminos was yak. Which would make his actions make sense.
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:33:33 GMT -5
Post by alexjabo on Jun 28, 2010 10:33:33 GMT -5
Kelsie, Tyler admitted being mafia, wasn't a miller lmao
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:36:44 GMT -5
Post by kelsielove on Jun 28, 2010 10:36:44 GMT -5
Ok then idk...
|
|
|
Day 4
Jun 28, 2010 10:45:03 GMT -5
Post by THodges on Jun 28, 2010 10:45:03 GMT -5
maybe belth is a lyncher with a diff target each day? there wouldn't be a fool in this setup cuz it'd fuck up weeks of planning
i vote: belth
|
|